The Matamak Conference on Cycles in 1931

Copley Amory invited a group of about 30 scientists to be his guests at a conference at the mouth of the Matamak river in Canada where he had a summer house. The subject was various biological cycles, as it was known that different animals had huge variations in numbers over cycles of about 4 and 10 years. These various fluctuations were important to humans because they affected agriculture in many ways. Related matters of weather and climate cycles were also discussed and, surprisingly, the 11 year sunspot cycle did not dominate matters.

This report was filed by Ellsworth Huntington of Yale University working with an editorial committee and with the approval of the conference.

Matamak-Conference

Some years later, Edward R Dewey, who had been studying economic cycles, was to find out about this conference and in a short space of time had contacted the organisers and the Foundation for the Study of Cycles was born.

 

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Ray Tomes Speaking at NPA Conference in Baltimore

The Natural Philosophy Alliance (NPA) is an organisation that is determined to stick to sound scientific principles based in empirical research rather than sticking with some theory and ignoring the facts that disagree with it. NPA is holding a conference in Baltimore from November 19 to 21, 2014. Ray Tomes will be one of the many speakers, giving two papers about how the Harmonics Theory came about and its successful predictions and explanations.

Ray’s two talks are available here as PDF documents for download.

NPA-Harmonics Theory and how it came about

NPA-Predictions of the Harmonics Theory

 

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Sunspot Number reconstruction by Leif Svalgaard and proxy cycles of 104 and 208 years

In an article on WUWT, “Solar Activity – Past, Present, Future“, Leif Svalgaard describes the problems of historical sunspot records because of changes in instrumentation and observers. He produces a new series which attempts to correct for the various problems. He has made the data available to me to perform a cycles analysis. This proves to be interesting as it enables linking our understanding of the telescopic record with the proxy records from C14 and Be10.

Before I performed a cycles analysis on the adjusted sunspot numbers, I took the square root of them. This has the result of making the 11 year cycle more symmetrical, and making typical fluctuations near minima and near maxima of about equal amounts. It does not have much effect on this particular analysis. Here is what the series looks like then:
It can be seen that the range of each cycle since about 1750 is quite similar. This is the result of using square root of sunspot numbers.

Next, a spectral analysis was done on this series using CATS. This allows finer resolution than with such tools as Fourier analysis or FFT. The location of peaks can be determined with high precision as shown here:

When analysis of shorter periods of sunspots are performed, the second highest peak here often appears only as a bump on the shoulder of the highest peak. Because of the longer period the peaks are able to be resolved clearly.

A number of researchers, myself included, have suggested that three of the periods found here might be related to planetary motions affecting the Sun. The periods are Jupiter’s period of 11.86 years, the Jupiter-Saturn conjunction period of 9.93 years, and the Jupiter-Venus-Earth syzygy cycle of 11.07 years (also happens to correspond to Jupiter + Neptune frequency). The increased precision of these estimates is almost able to rule out some of these suspected matches. In particular, the 10.01 year period should have uncertainty of +/-0.025 and it differs from 9.93 years by 0.08 years.  Hard to say.

In order of strength the cycles periods are:
11.05, 10.49, 10.01, 11.79 years.
The interesting thing about these periods is the beats between them.
11.05 and 10.49 years gives 207 years beats.
11.05 and 10.01 years gives 106 year beats.
The other various pairs give beats of 220, 177, 95 and 66 years.

See previous articles about C14 cycles analysis and Be10 cycles analysis as these two series are considered to be proxies for the sunspot cycle. We see the strongest beats are very close to, and others are generally clustering around the C14 and Be10 periods of 208 and 104 years. This is very suggestive. The modern sunspot cycle has a high autocorrelation after a lag of 210 years.

We can use the 104 and 208 year cycles to make a crude cycles forecast. For this purpose the wilder fluctuations pre-1750 have been omitted. The result:

It can be seen that the 104 and 208 year lagged sunspot numbers give a reasonably good fit to the present weak cycle 24.

The most important conclusion is that the 104 and 208 year cycles are closely related to the beat cycles of the closely spaced strong cycles near 11 years. This type of behaviour is quite commonly found in cycles analysis.

This suggests that we will not return to strong solar cycles again until the 2040s.

 

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60 Year Cycle in Global Sea Level

Geophysical Research Letters publishes a letter with the question Is there a 60-year oscillation in global mean sea level? recently. It is well known that a cycle of about this period strongly influences global temperatures, with highs around 1940 and 2000 and a low about 1970. The authors state in their abstract:

We examine long tide gauge records in every ocean basin to examine whether a quasi 60-year oscillation observed in global mean sea level (GMSL) reconstructions reflects a true global oscillation, or an artifact associated with a small number of gauges. We find that there is a significant oscillation with a period around 60-years in the majority of the tide gauges examined during the 20th Century, and that it appears in every ocean basin. Averaging of tide gauges over regions shows that the phase and amplitude of the fluctuations are similar in the North Atlantic, western North Pacific, and Indian Oceans, while the signal is shifted by 10 years in the western South Pacific. The only sampled region with no apparent 60-year fluctuation is the Central/Eastern North Pacific. The phase of the 60-year oscillation found in the tide gauge records is such that sea level in the North Atlantic, western North Pacific, Indian Ocean, and western South Pacific has been increasing since 1985–1990. Although the tide gauge data are still too limited, both in time and space, to determine conclusively that there is a 60-year oscillation in GMSL, the possibility should be considered when attempting to interpret the acceleration in the rate of global and regional mean sea level rise.

 

Image

Thanks to WUWT for info on this research.

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Hormones and You.

Originally posted on Conscious Lifestyles Radio:

My conversation with Leslie Carol Botha of Holy Hormones! was lively as this discussion about hormones has so many sub-categories that are crucially important in order to grasp the big picture of hormones and how important they are to every aspect of your health and living on this planet.

Leslie told me how your brain is in charge of the hormones and that you must protect this incredible, delicate balance to maintain hormonal health. Zeolitesare one product that Leslie uses daily [and has gotten me using them as well]. Zeolites are a mineral liquid substance that helps to wash out of your body the heavy metals, toxins, and xenon-estrogen mimicker invaders.

Zeolites are incredible because they don’t hurt any organ while they cleanse your body of toxins. Remember, you need to also be taking care of your Liver and Kidneys with Milk Thistle and Dandelion to help your body…

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Ray Tomes of the Cycles Research Institute on Harmonics Theory in Universal Patterns – October 18, 2012

THE CYCLES OF CHANGE RADIO PROGRAM – THURSDAYS: 8PM NEW YORK TIME, 5PM CALIFORNIABlogTalkRadio.com/cycles

ray-tomes-of-the-cycles-research-instituteRay Tomes found the Cycles Research Institute to further the study of cycles. Ray notes the the Universe consists of a standing wave which develops harmonically related waves, and each of these does the same.  In a fractal/harmonic universe there are threads of consistency in matter and creation that shape our lives in the human experience just as it shapes the manifestation of nature all around us.

Find out more at: CyclesResearchInstitute.org

“The Cycles of Change” Radio Show
Thursdays: 8pm Eastern, 5pm Pacific
Call in to speak with the host (347) 884-9593
Listen Live or visit us for the audio archive afterward
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Alan Steinfeld of New Realities TV on Galactic Cycles and Their Influence on Human Development – October 11, 2012

THE CYCLES OF CHANGE RADIO PROGRAM – THURSDAYS: 8PM NEW YORK TIME, 5PM CALIFORNIABlogTalkRadio.com/cycles

Alan Steinfeld of New RealitiesAlan Steinfeld is the creator and host of New Realities Television which is cast on the Time Warner network in New York and on the web. The mission of his web site at: NewRealities.com is to identify New Realities that are emerging on this planet. That means that the way people think about themselves and the world are changing. There is an influx of higher knowledge that is emanating from “the Unknown.” The veil between the dimensions is getting thinner and many people are opening up to new experiences that some have called “spiritual.” But Alan says we should not limit ourselves with the use of that word. he prefers to say that new realities are expanding our abilities to be more humanan and to feel more of the subtleties of our incarnational experience. Mr. Steinfeld’s personal quest is to connect with the consciousness of that spirit, and in so doing, he has researched and discovered fascinating elements related to our discussion on the the galactic cycles through which we and our solar system move. This great cycle brings great seasons of change through the millennia of human evolution and development. These great seasons and more will be the focus of our talk.

Find out more at: NewRealities.com

“The Cycles of Change” Radio Show
Thursdays: 8pm Eastern, 5pm Pacific
Call in to speak with the host (347) 884-9593
Listen Live or visit us for the audio archive afterward
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