Sunspot Number reconstruction by Leif Svalgaard and proxy cycles of 104 and 208 years

In an article on WUWT, “Solar Activity – Past, Present, Future“, Leif Svalgaard describes the problems of historical sunspot records because of changes in instrumentation and observers. He produces a new series which attempts to correct for the various problems. He has made the data available to me to perform a cycles analysis. This proves to be interesting as it enables linking our understanding of the telescopic record with the proxy records from C14 and Be10.

Before I performed a cycles analysis on the adjusted sunspot numbers, I took the square root of them. This has the result of making the 11 year cycle more symmetrical, and making typical fluctuations near minima and near maxima of about equal amounts. It does not have much effect on this particular analysis. Here is what the series looks like then:
It can be seen that the range of each cycle since about 1750 is quite similar. This is the result of using square root of sunspot numbers.

Next, a spectral analysis was done on this series using CATS. This allows finer resolution than with such tools as Fourier analysis or FFT. The location of peaks can be determined with high precision as shown here:

When analysis of shorter periods of sunspots are performed, the second highest peak here often appears only as a bump on the shoulder of the highest peak. Because of the longer period the peaks are able to be resolved clearly.

A number of researchers, myself included, have suggested that three of the periods found here might be related to planetary motions affecting the Sun. The periods are Jupiter’s period of 11.86 years, the Jupiter-Saturn conjunction period of 9.93 years, and the Jupiter-Venus-Earth syzygy cycle of 11.07 years (also happens to correspond to Jupiter + Neptune frequency). The increased precision of these estimates is almost able to rule out some of these suspected matches. In particular, the 10.01 year period should have uncertainty of +/-0.025 and it differs from 9.93 years by 0.08 years.  Hard to say.

In order of strength the cycles periods are:
11.05, 10.49, 10.01, 11.79 years.
The interesting thing about these periods is the beats between them.
11.05 and 10.49 years gives 207 years beats.
11.05 and 10.01 years gives 106 year beats.
The other various pairs give beats of 220, 177, 95 and 66 years.

See previous articles about C14 cycles analysis and Be10 cycles analysis as these two series are considered to be proxies for the sunspot cycle. We see the strongest beats are very close to, and others are generally clustering around the C14 and Be10 periods of 208 and 104 years. This is very suggestive. The modern sunspot cycle has a high autocorrelation after a lag of 210 years.

We can use the 104 and 208 year cycles to make a crude cycles forecast. For this purpose the wilder fluctuations pre-1750 have been omitted. The result:

It can be seen that the 104 and 208 year lagged sunspot numbers give a reasonably good fit to the present weak cycle 24.

The most important conclusion is that the 104 and 208 year cycles are closely related to the beat cycles of the closely spaced strong cycles near 11 years. This type of behaviour is quite commonly found in cycles analysis.

This suggests that we will not return to strong solar cycles again until the 2040s.

 

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60 Year Cycle in Global Sea Level

Geophysical Research Letters publishes a letter with the question Is there a 60-year oscillation in global mean sea level? recently. It is well known that a cycle of about this period strongly influences global temperatures, with highs around 1940 and 2000 and a low about 1970. The authors state in their abstract:

We examine long tide gauge records in every ocean basin to examine whether a quasi 60-year oscillation observed in global mean sea level (GMSL) reconstructions reflects a true global oscillation, or an artifact associated with a small number of gauges. We find that there is a significant oscillation with a period around 60-years in the majority of the tide gauges examined during the 20th Century, and that it appears in every ocean basin. Averaging of tide gauges over regions shows that the phase and amplitude of the fluctuations are similar in the North Atlantic, western North Pacific, and Indian Oceans, while the signal is shifted by 10 years in the western South Pacific. The only sampled region with no apparent 60-year fluctuation is the Central/Eastern North Pacific. The phase of the 60-year oscillation found in the tide gauge records is such that sea level in the North Atlantic, western North Pacific, Indian Ocean, and western South Pacific has been increasing since 1985–1990. Although the tide gauge data are still too limited, both in time and space, to determine conclusively that there is a 60-year oscillation in GMSL, the possibility should be considered when attempting to interpret the acceleration in the rate of global and regional mean sea level rise.

 

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Thanks to WUWT for info on this research.

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Hormones and You.

Originally posted on Conscious Lifestyles Radio:

My conversation with Leslie Carol Botha of Holy Hormones! was lively as this discussion about hormones has so many sub-categories that are crucially important in order to grasp the big picture of hormones and how important they are to every aspect of your health and living on this planet.

Leslie told me how your brain is in charge of the hormones and that you must protect this incredible, delicate balance to maintain hormonal health. Zeolitesare one product that Leslie uses daily [and has gotten me using them as well]. Zeolites are a mineral liquid substance that helps to wash out of your body the heavy metals, toxins, and xenon-estrogen mimicker invaders.

Zeolites are incredible because they don’t hurt any organ while they cleanse your body of toxins. Remember, you need to also be taking care of your Liver and Kidneys with Milk Thistle and Dandelion to help your body…

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Ray Tomes of the Cycles Research Institute on Harmonics Theory in Universal Patterns – October 18, 2012

THE CYCLES OF CHANGE RADIO PROGRAM – THURSDAYS: 8PM NEW YORK TIME, 5PM CALIFORNIABlogTalkRadio.com/cycles

ray-tomes-of-the-cycles-research-instituteRay Tomes found the Cycles Research Institute to further the study of cycles. Ray notes the the Universe consists of a standing wave which develops harmonically related waves, and each of these does the same.  In a fractal/harmonic universe there are threads of consistency in matter and creation that shape our lives in the human experience just as it shapes the manifestation of nature all around us.

Find out more at: CyclesResearchInstitute.org

“The Cycles of Change” Radio Show
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Alan Steinfeld of New Realities TV on Galactic Cycles and Their Influence on Human Development – October 11, 2012

THE CYCLES OF CHANGE RADIO PROGRAM – THURSDAYS: 8PM NEW YORK TIME, 5PM CALIFORNIABlogTalkRadio.com/cycles

Alan Steinfeld of New RealitiesAlan Steinfeld is the creator and host of New Realities Television which is cast on the Time Warner network in New York and on the web. The mission of his web site at: NewRealities.com is to identify New Realities that are emerging on this planet. That means that the way people think about themselves and the world are changing. There is an influx of higher knowledge that is emanating from “the Unknown.” The veil between the dimensions is getting thinner and many people are opening up to new experiences that some have called “spiritual.” But Alan says we should not limit ourselves with the use of that word. he prefers to say that new realities are expanding our abilities to be more humanan and to feel more of the subtleties of our incarnational experience. Mr. Steinfeld’s personal quest is to connect with the consciousness of that spirit, and in so doing, he has researched and discovered fascinating elements related to our discussion on the the galactic cycles through which we and our solar system move. This great cycle brings great seasons of change through the millennia of human evolution and development. These great seasons and more will be the focus of our talk.

Find out more at: NewRealities.com

“The Cycles of Change” Radio Show
Thursdays: 8pm Eastern, 5pm Pacific
Call in to speak with the host (347) 884-9593
Listen Live or visit us for the audio archive afterward
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Arch Crawford of the Crawford Perspective on Market Astrology – September 20, 2012

Cycles Radio

“The Cycles of Change” Radio Show

with your host
K. David Katzmire
Thursdays: 8pm Eastern, 5pm Pacific
Call in to speak with the host (347) 884-9593

BlogTalkRadio.com/cycles

Discussions on where we were, where we are and
where we are going in changing world of universal rhythms.
~ This Week’s Guest: Arch Crawford – September 20, 2012 at 8pm Eastern ~

Arch Crawford

Arch Crawford of Crawford Perspectives – Quintessential Market Timing by Planetary Cycles and Technical Analysis Since 1977. Mr. Crawford produces a comprehensive market- timing monthly newsletter for subscribers that has earned praise from investors around the world. Hulbert Financial Digest ranked Arch Crawford’s Crawford Perspectives#1 in Stock Market Timing for the period October 1 2007 through October 31, 2009! Hulbert started rating Crawford as a result of the spectacular prediction of the exact top day and Crash in 1987. Arch Crawford was ranked the no. 1 market timer for 1994 & 2008 and he ranked no. 2 in 2002. He was ranked no. 1 in the bond market in 1995 and no. 1 in gold investments in 2006 by Timer Digest. His remarkable track has origins back to when he the first ever assistant to the technical market analyst, Robert Farrell at Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith, Inc., Robert Farrell, who was consistently ranked by Wall St peers as the best on Wall St. in Institutional Investor magazine polls. CNBC, on which he has made frequent appearances, named him as the top market letter writer of the year in 2008: CrawfordPerspectives.com/documents/ACR004-002.wmv

How does he do it? He does it with market astrology, the Bradley Astronomic Model, lunar changes and more. See some of his remarkable calls at his site at: CrawfordPerspectives.com . This program’s discussion will we look at influence of natural cycles on our behavior in the market and how Mr. Crawford has had such a long record of success. Tune in!
Tune in and learn more! Feel free to call in.
If you don’t catch the show Live you can listen to the audio archive at: BlogTalkRadio.com/cycles

What is Cycles Radio?” Cycles Radio explores the Cycles of Change based on the study of your host, K. David Katzmire, who has developed the theory for more than three decades to understand the Cycles of Time. Universal patterns can be found in a person, a nation and in the eras of civilization on different scales of size and time. Therein lie undulating energies of physical, emotional, intellectual and spiritual cycles that are replete through our lives in wonderful fractal patterns that we can discern once we unlock the simple code.
This fascinating discovery has led to notable accuracy in identifying the manifestations of energy that effect all aspects of our lives from; the leaders we choose, our business trends, scientific developments, arts & literature, music & entertainment, sports, fashion trends and much more, all moving to the same universal patterns. This weekly show is dedicated to exploring this inquiry further. Join us and see how these cycles may effect you in the days and years ahead and where you are in the tides of time.
Thank you, K. David Katzmire
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Human Activity is not the Cause of Climate Change, it is the Result

Many people today are totally convinced that changes in human activity are the cause of climate change. I want to show that actually, the exact opposite is true. I suggest further that most climate change originates beyond the Earth, mainly in the Sun. Firstly a list of accepted facts (even though many are not usually applied to climate change):

1. Chemical reaction rates vary with temperature. A modest temperature rise can lead to chemical reactions happening much faster. This is true of a wide variety of chemical reactions. It is taught to students of chemistry.

2. Life is governed by a bunch of chemical reactions. As such its activity is affected by temperature. In general life is more active in day time than at night, and more active in summer than winter, in other words when it is warmer. Studies of animals, birds and insects invariably show that activity varies with temperature. Life is teaming at the equator and more sparse at the poles. Humans are animals too and subject to the same causes.

3. The flow of CO2 between atmosphere, plants, oceans etc are essentially chemical reactions and their rates are governed by temperature. Chemists know that solubility of gases in water is strongly affected by temperature. Atmospheric CO2 is strongly related to partial pressure of CO2 in the oceans.

4. There are long and medium term cycles in the Sun that affect climate on Earth. Some of the well accepted solar cycles are the 208 year Seuss  (or de Vries) cycle and the 2300 year Halstatt cycle. See wikipedia. An irregular cycle of about 50-60 years is also important in the medium term. Very long cycles called Milankovitch cycles affect ice ages (23,000 years, 41,000 years, 100,000 years and 400,000 years) and are associated with Earth axis and orbital variations and are not at issue here.

5. These medium to long term cycles are observed in both solar proxies and climate proxies. It is clear that any variations in solar activity must affect the earth’s climate as near enough to 100% of heat arriving at the earth originates in the Sun.

6. Logically we should expect that these solar fluctuations will affect climate on Earth and as a result the amount of human activity. All the facts are consistent with this view put forward here. And yet no-one seems to ever consider this approach. When I have mentioned it as a possible cause I have generally been laughed at. But, no sensible argument against the ideas has been advanced.

7. Because of human ideas about the importance of humans, they got mixed up and somehow came to believe that changes in human activity are causing changes in climate. This is demonstrably false. The normally proposed mechanism is that human economic activity creates CO2 which affects temperature change. The observed fact is that temperature change precedes CO2 change. This cannot possibly happen if human CO2 production is the primary cause of temperature change.

My favourite quotation relating to cycles is relevant here:

“Life is a phenomenon. Its production is due to the influence of the dynamics of the cosmos on a passive subject. It lives due to dynamics, each oscillation of organic pulsation is coordinated with the cosmic heart in a grandiose whole of nebulas, stars, the sun and the planet.”
– Alexander L Chizhevsky

What I describe was clearly understood by this great cycles researcher at least 60 years ago.

If my proposal is taken seriously then it would suggest that when natural solar cycles and the resulting natural climate cycles lead to lower temperatures, then human activity will naturally decline and so will CO2 in the atmosphere. But the temperature changes will lead the CO2 changes once again.

If this idea is not taken seriously, then arguments need to be put forward against the above facts and logic. And all of the facts must be faced. Anyone who cannot explain why temperature changes precede CO2 changes simply does not understand what is going on.

 

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