Kondratieff Cycles and Long Term Interest Rates

Kondratieff is perhaps the best known economic cycles researcher, having given his name to a cycle of around 54 years in prices and interest rates. The following graph, taken from “Cycles” magazine in August 1980, shows Kondratieff’s interest rate chart from 1820 to nearly 1920. The ideal cycle of 54 years was added by Dewey as Kondratieff had simply stated that the cycle varied from 48 to 60 years.

The graph identifies troughs in interest rates at 1843 and 1897. By continuing to add intervals of 54 years, we can expect further lows to occur around 1951 and 2005. Highs are expected in 1924 and 1998.

Interest rates reported by KondratieffSince 1920 we have passed through another one and a half cycles, showing perhaps two more each of highs and lows, so it is possible to see how Kondratieff’s dates turned out. The data used here is from the Data for Figure 2.1 in Robert J. Shiller Irrational Exuberance 2nd. Edition Princeton University Press.

Interest Rates

Produced by CATS

The continued Kondratieff cycle is very clear. The dates are a little different because the cycle is not perfectly regular.

The most important thing is that we are now 6 years past the expected low in interest rates. Therefore we can expect interest rates to rise for the next 27 years almost.


About Ray Tomes

Ray's career was in computer software development including system software design, economic modeling, investments. He spent 15 years full time on cycles research and has spoken on cycles and related topics at conferences and seminars around the world. He retired at age 42 to study cycles full time and work out “The Formula for the Universe” and as a result developed the Harmonics Theory as an explanation for observed patterns of cycles and structure of the Universe. His current project is the development of CATS (Cycles Analysis & Time Series) software, and collecting and organizing large quantities of time series data and analyzing this data to test and confirm Dewey's findings in an organized way. Interested in all aspects of cycles especially climate change and causes.
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9 Responses to Kondratieff Cycles and Long Term Interest Rates

  1. Pingback: Economic Cycles - An Introduction & Definition

  2. Vlad Bk says:

    The actual cycles is 51.6 years Martin Armstrongs finding on 309.6 wave cycles in civilisation that consists of 6- 51.6 year debt-repayment waves, the last one was in 1981.35, if you know what happened then, interests rates went crazy.
    https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/models/7219-2/ “309 year wave of 51.6 waves ”
    People should pay attention to this man; Watch The forecaster documentary.

    What is more amazing is that in the Quran these cycles was predicted;
    309 year wave was explained in the verse;
    Chapter of the Romans:
    30:9 Have they not traveled through the earth and observed how was the end of those before them? They were greater than them in power, and they plowed the earth and built it up more than they have built it up, and their messengers came to them with clear evidences. And Allah would not ever have wronged them, but they were wronging themselves.
    Notice the “They were greater than them in power, and they plowed the earth and built it up more than they built it up” So increase in confidence, and ultimately the end-game is a crash, and follows a cycle; just like the ECM model say above; Read the links above, then you will understand the ECM model.

    Religion changes after 309 years
    18:25″ And they remained in their cave for 300 and exceeded by 9 .” (309 years)
    18:20 ” Indeed, if they come to know of you, they will stone you or return you to their religion. And never would you succeed, then – ever.”
    On Roman youths; change in religion happened after 309 years; So God protected the Roman youth from danger. By letting them sleep in the cave for 309 years and religion and society is changed.
    Here he said ;
    ” There is a 309.6 year cycle in religion that has been extraordinarily regular and that includes ALL religions not just Islam. This is of course amplified by economic downturns”

    And the ultimately the 51.6 wave is in verse
    51:6 The Recompense is to occur
    (the repayment of debt)

    And there is also 8.6 year cycle presented in the Quran but that follows the 27.3 sidereal orbital of the Lunar month and the sidereal orbital of the earth 365.2 days and the roman lunar calender of 355 days to get this number; And from this 8.6 year cycle I get Pi to 5 digits. The 8.6 cycles is 6 cycles that make up 51.6 year waves.
    This man discovered Gods law. Without him knowing it; I just discovered this a month ago.

    • Ray Tomes says:

      I have found many long term series with the Kondratieff cycle in them and the period is usually between 53 and 54 years. I don’t have a lot of faith in Martin Armstrong’s periods. The cycle of religions is mainly a 600 year cycle (600 BC, 0, 600 AD, 1200 AD(?) and 1800 AD although there is a secondary 300 year cycle.

      • avivgrowth says:

        It is interesting what you said there. So Martins model are not precise? And the cycle for religion is not 309.6 years as Martin says? Would you like to see what I have written about this correspondence of 309-year change in religion in Quran ? Here is the link;

        It is not done yet. But either way, it is very close to being finished. In the last section, you see how Shnolls cycles of time relates to Martin’s, it is my take. I can’t help see the correspondence. Maybe it is just a coincidence.

        • avivgrowth says:

          And Ray can I ask, are there real theoretical research in computer modeling of cycles of you speak of. I am mean some type of theoretical mathematical model of the types of cycle you talk about. It seems like it is all just measurements of data, and out pops a cycle, but is there any equations behind it? Which I can working on? Where can I start? Thanks

          • Ray Tomes says:

            The original method for finding cycles was Fourier analysis. Look in Wikipedia for details. It is not good at getti8ng the period when the number of cycles in the available data is low. Other methods that interpolate in such cases can get rather more accurate periods. Look for CATS software in cyclesresearchinstitute web site. It will do this.

        • Ray Tomes says:

          I get an error message on that link. Can you please send the info to me by email to ray(at)tomes(dot)biz?
          Edward Dewey has a 600 year religion cycle although there seems to be a 300 year component also. But I cannot see it being as long as 618 or 619 years.

          • avivgrowth says:

            Thanks for the info; I was also thinking the Fourier analysis was one of the methods.
            I am physics student myself, just 2nd year, and we are just making use of Fourier analysis methods. It is really powerful! I am excited to use your software!

  3. Vlad Bk says:

    So I hope you will look into it, and verify his work.

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