Hale Sunspot Cycle in English Temperature Record?

In an article “The Sun Talks to the Trees Too” In Roger’s blog the question is raised of whether the 22 year Hale double sunspot cycle is visible in temperature records.

Looking at the longest thermometer temperature record, English temperatures since 1659, there is a cycle which was previously identified as about 24 years. Here is the part of the spectrum between 10 and 100 years:

The 23.886 year period found would have an uncertainty of about 0.2 years over the 350 year span of the data. This is rather too long to be the Hale double sunspot cycle which averages 22.2 years. However there is clearly a bump on the right shoulder of the peak in the spectrum that might be our Hale cycle.

So the 23.886 year cycle was removed from the data and the spectrum of the  result was recalculated:

The peak hiding in the right shoulder has a period of 22.6 years. Its period will be less accurate because of interference effects from the dominant peak so that it could possibly be the 22.2 year cycle.

However there is still the issue as to what the longer cycle represents. The two cycles make beats in about 420 years, just a little longer than our data. This means that it is not possible to say what happens longer term with such cycles. So, while it is possible that the Hale cycle is present in temperatures, it is a long way from being established that this is so.


About Ray Tomes

Ray's career was in computer software development including system software design, economic modeling, investments. He spent 15 years full time on cycles research and has spoken on cycles and related topics at conferences and seminars around the world. He retired at age 42 to study cycles full time and work out “The Formula for the Universe” and as a result developed the Harmonics Theory as an explanation for observed patterns of cycles and structure of the Universe. His current project is the development of CATS (Cycles Analysis & Time Series) software, and collecting and organizing large quantities of time series data and analyzing this data to test and confirm Dewey's findings in an organized way. Interested in all aspects of cycles especially climate change and causes.
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6 Responses to Hale Sunspot Cycle in English Temperature Record?

  1. P.G. Sharrow says:

    Dropped by from Tallblokes site, will book mark this site for more study. pg

  2. tallbloke says:

    Thanks for this post Ray. If you find the tme to put the periods on the other peaks, it would be interesting to see if the decadal cycles relate to any well known periodicities too.

    My dad was a water engineer. He observed various peaks in river flow and drought cycles in Yorkshire, England. I’m wondering if any of those peaks on your graph relate to lunar declination cycles.

  3. Pingback: Hale cycle | Afeservicesint

  4. tallbloke says:

    Reblogged this on Tallbloke's Talkshop and commented:

    An older post from Ray Tomes with relevance to his recent comment:
    English temperatures also show a cycle of around 23 years. Please look at this analysis where I show that the main period in England is 23.9 years with a possible additional component matching Hale cycle.
    This article refers back to a previous one on this blog:
    In my experience there is a cycle present in a number of different things that is close to twice Jupiter’s period and definitely different from Hale cycle. To understand more about this please see my page on Harmonics theory at http://ray.tomes.biz/maths.html

  5. Pingback: Hale Sunspot Cycle in English Temperature Record? | Tallbloke's Talkshop

  6. Pingback: Cycling in Central England | Watts Up With That?

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