AORD cycle of 1884 days (62 months)

I received an email from Jeff Connell in Australia which I quote here with his permission:

I don’t know whether this comes across as “teaching your grandmother how to suck eggs”, as you are the master, but as a thank you I would like to add my little observation on one cycle in the Australian market.

I noticed from the 1982 major low here that we seem to have a 62 month up/ 62 month down cycle or 124 month low to low as more exact.

In fact at its best it is 1884 cal days.

The 1982 low to the 1987 high was 62 months.

The 1987 high to Nov 1992 low was 62 months and 1884 cal days.

62 months higher and the market just paused for a year or two.

124 months and exactly 2 x 1884 days from the Nov 1992 low was the exact day of the 2003 low.  It didn’t hurt that it was also 1/8th of an Armstrong cycle down to the day from our XAO 2002 top.  I got the exact day and the exact price low by two price measurements.

62 months up gave us the May 2008 lower rally top and so I look to July 5-8 2013 as a major low here.  It is also 2/3rds an Armstrong cycle low to the day from the 2007 US top and will be confirmed if we see a top around Aug 23 this year. (1/3rd)

As for price, the 2007-2009 SPI decline was 1 pt more than 2 x 1884 or 3768 pts.

I love your vibration analysis and use 1/8ths and 1/12ths etc on Armstrong (8.6 yr) measurements and that is still working from the 2003 low.

In saying that, although I don’t actually use 1/24ths, I find that is the base measurement, as multiples of 1/24th give you 1/8ths and 1/12ths and 1/4ths and 1/3rds etc.

Sorry grandma :-).

Below I have put a graph of AORD (made with CATS, free at CRI) with some marks on it about where you indicated. Unfortunately it starts after 1982 so doesn’t quite get that low. I marked roughly the two other places where lows should be also.

When I look for cycles in AORD with CATS, I get the strongest one as 2258 calendar days with others at 1761 and 3276 days. This doesn’t necessarily disagree with what you have found. I have found that cycles often come with certain rather regular peaks which I call “specific occurrences” but a different long term average cycle. CATS is finding the average cycle. Generally with specific occurrences there are multiple of them, and one series may start up overlapping another. See http://www.cyclesresearchinstitute.org/tomes/tomes_unified_cycles.pdf for more.

The cycle that you are finding falls into the specific occurrence category and is an excellent example of it. The 1998 and 2009 lows might also be 2 x 1884 days apart? If so, this could be the start of a new series. To get the gist of this, also see the article on Saros cycles.

I was just working out what 1884 days divided by 12 is … 157 days!

There are a series of cycles, of which 154 – 155 days is the most noticeable one. Reports of the period vary from about 150 to 160 days or so. It is found in various Solar phenomena but I have also found it in commodities and markets. See http://www.cyclesresearchinstitute.org/journal/CRI200510-solar154day.pdf

I see no reason that 1884 days should translate to 1884 points. I regard that as numerology.

Advertisements

About Ray Tomes

Ray's career was in computer software development including system software design, economic modeling, investments. He spent 15 years full time on cycles research and has spoken on cycles and related topics at conferences and seminars around the world. He retired at age 42 to study cycles full time and work out “The Formula for the Universe” and as a result developed the Harmonics Theory as an explanation for observed patterns of cycles and structure of the Universe. His current project is the development of CATS (Cycles Analysis & Time Series) software, and collecting and organizing large quantities of time series data and analyzing this data to test and confirm Dewey's findings in an organized way. Interested in all aspects of cycles especially climate change and causes.
This entry was posted in cycles-Analysis, economy-Stock_Markets and tagged , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

4 Responses to AORD cycle of 1884 days (62 months)

  1. Jeff Connell says:

    While I can’t conclude that July 2013 is the lowest low, the period 5-8/7/2013 has some interesting aspects.

    The US great bear market low was 8/07/1932.

    The major Australian bear market low of 1982 was 8/07/1982, 50 years later.

    Last year XAO had a interim low at 8/07/2009, this year it is 6/07/2010.

    Yes it is seasonal.

    One could argue that from US independence 4/07/1776 to the 8/07/1932 (major bear low) is 2X78 years and so this current low is another 78 years. Maybe.

  2. Ray Tomes says:

    And I always thought it was Octobers that you had to watch out for.

  3. Ramachandran says:

    Even in seasonal crops, which are traded in exchanges, it is observed. The 154-158 trading days reversal phenomena (I thought it is due to 0.5*3.14(Phi), while I do not observe the major trend change, break of major trend for 18-20 days happen, before resumption. But what appears very significant is the 333-336 trading days cycle (56 weeks cycle) which sets the major trend & it’s reversal. Thanks.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s