Cycle in US depressions

(from a post by Darrin Vernier in astrofin Yahoo group)

The two Great Depressions of American history up to this point have been in 1873 and 1929.
Interestingly 56 years has been a favorite cycle period of authors such as Dewey and McMinn.
 
The half cycle of a major cycle can be interesting too and half of 56 is 28.
 
56 + 28 = 84
 
1929 + 84 = 2013
 
Note that all of these cycle lengths are multiples of 7 years and what I’m saying may be clear
to U.

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This entry was posted in cycles-Analysis, economy-Finance, economy-Markets, Harmonics, researchers-Dewey. Bookmark the permalink.

2 Responses to Cycle in US depressions

  1. Ray Tomes says:

    The Kondratieff cycle period is usually reckoned to average 53 to 54 years rather than 56 years. In long term series of prices (e.g. 1500s to 1900s) I am often finding a cycle of 53 to 54 years as well as a half-Kondratieff cycle of a little under 27 years. On this basis the 1.5 Kondratieff cycles from 1929 has already passed a year or so.

    In the stock market, the similarity is greatest at a spacing of 71 years, with the 2000 downturn corresponding to the 1929 crash. The 2008 downturn was the second wave corresponding to 1937.

    See http://raytomes.posterous.com/us-stock-market-cycles-of-355-and-71-years and http://raytomes.posterous.com/stock-market-going-down where the latest downturn of the Stock Market was predicted.

    Note that in Dewey’s table of common cycles included 71, 53.25, 35.5 years but he didn’t include 26.625 years. Perhaps it should have.

  2. acepsut says:

    Dow Repeats Great Depression Pattern: Charts

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average is repeating a pattern that appeared just before markets fell during the Great Depression, Daryl Guppy, CEO at Guppytraders.com, told CNBC Monday.

    “Those who don’t remember history are doomed to repeat it…there was a head and shoulders pattern that developed before the Depression in 1929, then with the recovery in 1930 we had another head and shoulders pattern that preceded a fall in the market, and in the current Dow situation we see an exact repeat of that environment,” Guppy said.

    The Dow retreated 457.33 points, or 4.5 percent last week, to close at 9,686 Friday. Guppy said a Dow fall below 9,800 confirmed the head and shoulders pattern.

    The Shanghai Composite is seeing a very rapid collapse, falling below 2,500, which suggests the major fall in the Dow, he added.

    In the European markets, Guppy says Frankfurt’s Dax is witnessing a different pattern to London’s FTSE.

    Guppy uses the broad trading band as measurement- giving the Dax a downsize target of 1,500. The same head and shoulders pattern seen in the Dow can also being seen in the FTSE, he added.

    © 2010 CNBC.com

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