Temperature Change Precedes CO2 Change

An analysis of more than 50 years of monthly data shows that the rate of change of temperature precedes the rate of change of atmospheric CO2 content by 6 months. Both variables are determined as 12 month changes to remove any possible seasonal effects.

If CO2 is responsible for temperature change as is generally claimed, then it is difficult to explain how the effect precedes the cause.

On the much longer time scale of ice ages it has been found that temperature precedes CO2 changes by about 800 years. So it is surprising to find that a moderate correlation exists with just a 6 month lag.

The graphs of the two variables are shown below. Each is treated the same way, by calculating a 12 month change and then smoothed for 12 months together and plotted at the centre of the period. The 6 month lag between temperature rate of change and CO2 rate of change is evident.

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About Ray Tomes

Ray's career was in computer software development including system software design, economic modeling, investments. He spent 15 years full time on cycles research and has spoken on cycles and related topics at conferences and seminars around the world. He retired at age 42 to study cycles full time and work out “The Formula for the Universe” and as a result developed the Harmonics Theory as an explanation for observed patterns of cycles and structure of the Universe. His current project is the development of CATS (Cycles Analysis & Time Series) software, and collecting and organizing large quantities of time series data and analyzing this data to test and confirm Dewey's findings in an organized way. Interested in all aspects of cycles especially climate change and causes.
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5 Responses to Temperature Change Precedes CO2 Change

  1. tallbloke says:

    Hi Ray,
    I discovered the same thing last year by making some graphs using http://woodfortrees.org
    Because I had detrended the co2 data to demonstrate the lag the people I was showing it to were convinced I was ‘fiddling’ something. 🙂
    Cheers
    Rog

  2. tallbloke says:

    I made another plot of co2 against temperature, using the Mauna Loa data and UAH satellite data.
    http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/esrl-co2/mean:12/detrend:100/from:1995/to:2009/offset:-287.6/scale:0.5/plot/uah/from:1995/to:2009/mean:12/offset
    Curiously, the lag sems to jump from 6 months to around 22 months around 2001.

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