Firstly, it should be stated that predicting solar cycles has not been a thing that has had great success in the past. But when three groups come to the same conclusion, it is worth looking at what they say.
National Geographic News reports:
Enjoy our stormy sun while it lasts. When our star drops out of its latest sunspot activity cycle, the sun is most likely going into hibernation, scientists announced today.
Three independent studies of the sun’s insides, surface, and upper atmosphere all predict that the next solar cycle will be significantly delayed—if it happens at all. Normally, the next cycle would be expected to start roughly around 2020.
The combined data indicate that we may soon be headed into what’s known as a grand minimum, a period of unusually low solar activity.
The predicted solar “sleep” is being compared to the last grand minimum on record, which occurred between 1645 and 1715.
Quiet Sun appearance.
It is worth mentioning that the current cycle 24 has been quite substantially slower and quieter than any cycle for many decades.
The association between solar activity and climate is well established, but because of the political aspects of climate change, the waters can expect to get muddy with this announcement. Expect predictions ranging from a new ice age to everyone getting fried. The truth? All energy on Earth comes from the Sun so if activity is less then it will cause some cooling compared to if the Sun was more active.
Cycles Research Institute
Ray Tomes
acepsut
Leslie Carol Botha
tallbloke
K. David Katzmire
Would you please be kind enough to explain the effect of possible hybernation (low number of sunspots) on inflationary expectation, and bond yields. As I understand, we expected a sunspot maximum to occur sometime in 2012-2013, but the new study just reverses all that.
thank you.
There was a NASA prediction that the peak sunspot would be soon and huge. Now, it’s soon and tiny. The original predictions by a number of solar scientists were way off and they have been adjusting downward as time goes on.
However, the shining light here has been one groups of scientists who have mapped the solar cyclical factors and found that their interference pattern recreates the sunspot counts fairly accurately all the way back to the beginning of the records during the Little Ice Age. The interference pattern repeats and it shows that our next two cycles should be similar to one of the two major Little Ice Age Minimums. Now these other three groups, studying individual features of the Sun, have arrived at the same place.
It’s pretty cool and shows how valuable it is to study the past, which is one thing the IPCC and the warmist bedwetters claim is irrelevant today because they know in their hearts that CO2 has swamped out and canceled ALL natural cycles here and in the Sun.
I don’t think is very much correlation between sunspot numbers and either inflation or bond yields. My understanding of the report is that it is not this cycle but the following one that will be very weak (although this one looks to be a bit on the weak side too).
From where interest rates are right now, and based on longer term cycles, I would say interest rates will probably rise over the next decade.
I am a bit of a newcomer to this area. my understanding is that the sun’s energy to earth is governed by
several criteria.
a. Speed of solar wind
b. strength of mag. field.
c. direction of the above field.
d. number of sunspots
Where can one find historical data on the above four, so I can compare and correlate the strongest/weakest energy periods to various indicators here.
thank you very much.
There is data on the NASA web site. Hint, try search with ” data site:nasa.gov” added to the search parameters, or start here: http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/SolarWind.shtml
There is data on the NASA web site. Hint, try search with ” data site:nasa.gov” added to the search parameters, or start here: http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/SolarWind.shtml
Also try FTP. You can go up and down the index structure from here: ftp://ftp.ngdc.noaa.gov/STP/GEOMAGNETIC_DATA/AASTAR/
It should be pointed out that the Sun we are used to may not be the Sun’s normal state. As we have spent the majority of the last few million years in ice ages, perhaps the active phase we have been having is an unusual active state and quiet is the Sun’s real normal.
We humans so easily take an arrogant status quo approach to our world. Not only do we try to deny change until we quantitate it (spotted owl population decreasing), we try to prevent change, often in ingenuous ways (destroy a lumber industry assuming these owls only live on old forests), but we also do not give up when we are totally wrong (the generalist striped owl is competing out the flying squirrel specialist spotted owl, so we are now out to eradicate the striped owl, costing $9 million) and throw our good sense out the window (a species-cide vendetta against a natural forest animal).
Years ago, to protect Seattle’s watershed from deer droppings, assuming that they would contaminate the ground water, city council members contemplated diapering the deer, as they had already agreed to diaper the horses to be used to drag out deadfall trees (the trees might, ohmigod, rot!). They chose horses as they did not want the exhaust released by tractors. But, then horses have droppings. The bright bulb in the council finally told the others that they we really stupid and the proposal failed.